On August 1, 2025, the U.S. is set to implement a 50% tariff on imported copper, triggering substantial disruptions in the global copper trade. This policy has already caused a notable price divergence between COMEX and LME markets.

Sources: Reuters, CSIS

Between March and May, U.S. buyers stockpiled over 541,600 tons of copper in anticipation of the tariff. This led to a significant drain in global inventories, especially from the London Metal Exchange. The result: rising U.S. domestic prices (COMEX) while global markets (LME) remain relatively stable.

Source: Reuters

While the U.S. market shows strong price movements, the LME reflects a more balanced global supply-demand outlook. Analysts predict that with increased exports from China, the market may stabilize in the coming months.

Sources: J.P. Morgan, Reuters

Summary:

The U.S. tariff represents a major shock to the copper trade, but steady LME prices suggest the global market is still fundamentally balanced. Industry players should monitor policy changes closely and diversify sourcing strategies accordingly.